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What Cycle are We In, and What Works Now?

This is a simple, but profound history of the typical cycles we go through with markets. The housing cycle tends to 'lead' which means if you know your economic cycle TODAY - you can also assume the housing cycle is probably one cycle ahead of it, it will enter earlier and exit earlier.


Example: If today Q2-2023 we think that the economy is in the 'Slowdown' phase, which means growth is above trend but is decelerating - then the Housing cycle today is probably in the 'Contraction' phase, which means growth is below trend and decelerating.


It also means it will enter the Recovery phase before the economy moves out of the Contraction phase.



What works in different cycles for investing? And why would housing be early?




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