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Did Increasing Rates Bring Down Inflation in the 1970s?


NO, and then YES.


NO, as you can see interest rates were raised in 1970 to about 8.5%, and inflation abated, rates dropped for a few years, but then inflation took hold again for a second wave. NO again and rates where then raised to 12.5% and inflation abated again, and rates were quickly dropped again only for inflation to make a third and final wave up where 18% rates (which you'll note they held higher for longer) eventually allowed rates to come back down and inflation was 'tamed'. So ultimately YES is an answer.


We have too much debt this time around or rates to go that high, or for that long, but ultimately the FED could facilitate several waves of this... learn to surf!



The FED has a higher market that can also bring down demand through creating wealth destruction as the market reprices to lower expected earnings and a higher dollar.



The corporate world is also taking note and creating their own demand destruction through layoffs (we'll see more of those in time) and the faster driver is simply not hiring. I'm hearing more about people losing their job before they start - where a company hired them and then rescinded before they started. This will all work it's way through, but this eventually plays out and through housing and lending... and usually it is multiple waves, not a single wave. COVID is another great examples of these shocks, they ebb and flow.



Ultimately rising interest rates bring down inflation through creating a recession.





TIP: Take it one day at a time, we are more likely to see several large waves over many years - so the key to survival is flexibility.


According to Darwin’s Origin of Species, it is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.


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